The Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) has released a new report, From Goals to Plans: Improving Rigor, Transparency, and Decision-Making in Electricity Plans with Ambitious Policy Targets, articulating the unique challenges of planning for completely decarbonized electricity systems and offering recommendations for future planning studies.

As 100% clean electricity and net-zero emissions are being adopted in some jurisdictions around the world, electricity system planners and regulators are being asked to answer a new and challenging question: how can we build a reliable, affordable, and fully decarbonized power system over the next 15 to 25 years? To explore the complexities of planning for electricity decarbonization, ESIG created a Clean Electricity Planning Task Force, convening industry planners and reviewing recent industry planning studies that include 100% clean and net-zero emissions policy requirements. The task force aimed to articulate the unique challenges of planning for completely decarbonized electricity systems, explore the resource options available to planners to meet these requirements, and make recommendations for conducting future planning studies.

“Many great planning studies have examined 100% clean electricity systems, but because of the very significant challenges associated with meeting these targets, fundamental improvements to planning are required,” said Trieu Mai, Visiting Fellow at ESIG. “The task force’s recommendations are intended to motivate such improvements to planning and, ultimately, infrastructure decisions.”

Based on the current state of industry planning and the innovations that planning organizations are already pursuing, the task force developed four sets of recommendations for future planning studies: (1) to address technology uncertainty head on by designing scenarios to assess technology risk and cost uncertainty, developing portfolios that complement multiple emerging technology pathways, and evaluating risks associated with near-term infrastructure commitments; (2) look beyond the electricity system, as some emerging technologies introduce new dependencies between the electricity sector and the rest of the energy economy; (3) embrace transparency in new areas of complexity, to help decision-makers assess whether a plan is reasonable, how risks may or may not be addressed, and what conclusions can (or can’t) be drawn from the analysis; and (4) translate long-term findings into practical near-term decisions. “Simply putting out the problem statement of net-zero emissions or 100% clean electricity is already driving technological innovation in our industry,” said Elaine Hart, Task Force Lead, and, Principal, Sylvan Energy Analytics. “But many promising technologies are still years away from commercial readiness. In the meantime, decision-makers are facing growing loads and tough calls about new energy infrastructure. This report can help planners navigate that space between the long-term ambitions of these policies and the very practical near-term decision points our industry faces.”