September 25, 2020
Renewable energy forecasts are important tools for utilities and system operators to predict power output and total production for weather-driven generation sources such as solar and wind. However, validation and analysis of these forecasts are typically done using ad hoc methods built by either forecast providers or end users, and are often proprietary, not transparent, and not standardized. This has resulted in non-repeatable results and disputes over validity. It has also led to a focus on bulk metrics, which, while easy to track, provide only limited information about a forecast’s usefulness, as they represent average values over a longer period and fail to capture specific values during shorter, discrete events—whose prediction…
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