2018 Forecasting Workshop

2018 Forecasting Workshop Agenda

Tutorial: Incorporating Variable Generation Forecasts into Power System Operational Procedures
Chairs: Erik Ela and Aidan Tuohy, EPRI

Day Ahead and Real Time Operations – A US ISO Point of View, Daniel Harless, SPP
Day Ahead and Real Time Operations – A European Point of View, Rui Pestana, REN, Portugal
Day Ahead and Real Time Operations – A US Large Utility Point of View, Kari Hassler, Xcel Energy
The Impacts of Variable Generation Forecasting in Determining Reserve Needs and Value, Nick Steffan and Sean Chang, ERCOT
Natural Gas System Forecasting Status and Coordination Opportunities, Mike Knowland, ISO-NE
The Changing Needs of Power System Forecasting on the Evolving Power Grid, Erik Ela, EPRI

Forecasting Workshop

Forecasting Workshop Welcome & Opening Session

Local Welcome, Michael Noble, Executive Director, Fresh Energy
Opening Remarks, Mark Ahlstrom, President, ESIG Board
Keynote Comments – Improved Forecast Value from Energy Systems Integration Applications, Mark Ahlstrom, President, ESIG Board
Meeting Overview, Charlie Smith, Executive Director, ESIG

Session 1: Opening Plenary – Meteorology, Climate and the Electric Sector – Forecasting for an Integrated Energy System
Chair: Sue Haupt, NCAR

Global Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy, Alberto Troccoli, World Energy and Meteorology Council
Climate Model Insights on Future Wind Resource, Julie Lundquist, UC Boulder
Impact of Climate Change on Forecasts, Jeff Freedman, SUNY Albany
Opportunities for Improved Coordination between Meteorology and Operations, David Schweizer, PJM

Session 2: Solar and Wind R&D Advances
Chair: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused

Overview of DOE Solar Forecasting II FOA, Tassos Golnas, DOE
Topic Area 1, Solar Forecasting Performance Framework, Will Holmgren, U of Arizona
Use of Additional Sensors to Improve Solar and Wind Forecasts, Aidan Tuohy, EPRI
Extending Fleet Forecasting Capability into the Probabilistic Realm, Tom Hoff, Clean Power Research
Wind Forecasting Improvement Project 2 – Results, Melinda Marquis, NOAA
Wind Forecasting Improvement Project 2 – Decision Support Tools, Jim McCaa, Vaisala

Session 3: Integration of Probabilistic Forecasts into the EMS and MMS – Status and Prospects
Chair: Bob Zavadil, EnerNex

Integration of Probabilistic Forecasts into the EMS and MMS – Status and Prospects, Amber Motley, CAISO and Sankaran Rajagopal, Siemens
Integration of Probabilistic Forecasts into the EMS and MMS, Tim Miller, SPP and Drew Gray, GE
Integration of Probabilistic Forecasts into the EMS and MMS – Status and Prospects – A Market Management System Perspective, Khosrow Moslehi, ABB
Integration of Renewables Forecasts into the EMS and MMS, David Edelson, NYISO

Session 4: Integration and Use of Solar Forecasts for Operating Storage Systems, Distribution Systems and Real Time Markets
Chair: Mark Ahlstrom, NextEra Energy

One-Minute Forecasts for Distributed Solar/Storage Applications, Agata Swierc, Clean Power Research
Operational Forecasting Implications of Integrated Wind, Solar and Energy Storage, Daniel Kirk-Davidoff, AWS/UL
Distributed PV Forecasting and Data Marketplace in an Era of Data Privacy Concerns, Ricardo Bessa, INESC TEC, Portugal
Distributed PV Forecasting, Load Forecasting and System Operations, John Simonelli, ISO-NE

Session 5: VG Forecasting and Market Operation Experience
Chair: Alain Forcione, IREQ

Market Design Evolution and Forecast Integration in EirGrid, Karen O’Doherty, EirGrid Group
Evolution of Spanish Wind and Solar Plant Forecasting and Market Operation, Mayte Garcia, REE
Market Design Evolution and Forecasting Integration in the AESO, Jacques Duchesne, AESO
ERCOT Wind and Solar Forecasting Developments – Status and Prospects, Pengwei Du, ERCOT
Wind and Solar Forecasting in Portugal – Status and Prospects, Rui Pestana, R&D Nester

Session 6: VG Forecasting and Market Operation Advances
Chair: Craig Collier, DNV/GL

Wind and Solar Forecasting and Market Integration in Germany – Status and Prospects, Ulrich Focken, Energy and Meteo
NOAA High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecasting Model Updates and Application, Stan Benjamin, NOAA
Forecasting for an Integrated Energy System, Conor Sweeney, UC Dublin
Turbine Specific Wind Forecasting in SPP, Gunnar Shaffer, SPP
Turbine-level vs. Farm-level Data and Temperate Effects on Wind Generation Power Conversion, Drake Bartlett, Xcel Energy

Session 7: Advances in Forecast Applications and Market Design
Chair: Erik Ela, EPRI

CAISO Proposed Day-Ahead Market with 15 Minute Resolution – Why This Is Good for Renewables, Amber Motley, CAISO
How Might Nowcasting Impact Market Rules – What’s Happening in MISO, Blagoy Borissov, MISO
Use of Uncertainty Information in Grid Management: A High-Speed Shutdown Warning System in Ireland, Corinna Möhrlen, WEPROG
Use of Real Time PV Plant Output Data for Solar Forecasting, Nick Engerer, Australian National University
Wind and Solar Data Sets for the North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS), Josh Novacheck, NREL

Session 8: Closing Plenary – Joint Session with IEA Wind Task 36 on Forecasting for Wind Energy
Chair: John Zack, AWS Truepower

A Short Introduction to IEA Wind Task 36, Gregor Giebel, DTU, Denmark
Introduction to the Forecasting Segment of the Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) at Glasgow University, Corinna Möhrlen, WEPROG
Update on IEC SC 8A WG 2 Forecasting Activity, Aidan Tuohy, EPRI
Briefing on WP3: Establishing Standards for Understanding the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry, Bri-Mathias Hodge, NREL
Briefing on WP2: Recommended Practice on Forecast Solution Selection and Forecasting Trials, Jeff Lerner, Vaisala
Review and Discussion on Topics for the IEA Wind Task 36 from 2019-2021, Gregor Giebel, DTU, Denmark

Forecasting Workshop Review & Recap